[18] "Contesting the Climate: Security Implications of Geo-engineering'' (with Aseem Mahajan) Forthcoming at Climatic Change.

[17] "Natural Disasters and Cross-Border Implications" (with Elena McLean) Forthcoming at Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies.

[16] "Expecting the Unexpected: Disaster Risks and Conflict" (with Elena McLean) Forthcoming at Political Research Quarterly.

[15] "Give Peace a (Second) Chance: A Theory of Nonproliferation Deals" (with Andrew Coe) International Studies Quarterly September 2018, vol 62, no 3, pp. 606-617. PDF

[14] "Peaceful Uncertainty: When Power Shocks Do Not Create Commitment Problems" (with Robert Schub) International Studies Quarterly December 2017, vol 61, no 4, pp. 850-866. PDF

[13] "Accounting for Extra-Dyadic Sources of International Outcomes" (with Omer F. Orsun and Robert Schub) International Interactions December 2017 doi: 10.1080/03050629.2017.1414810

[12] "Theoretical and Empirical Approaches to Uncertainty and Conflict in International Relations." (with Robert Schub) Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics September 2017 doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.537. PDF

[11] "Uncertainty in International Crises" (with Elena McLean and Taehee Whang) Korean Journal of International Studies August 2017 vol. 15 no. 2 pp. 165-189

[10] "A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War'' (with Andrew Coe) International Organization 2016, vol. 70 no. 4 pp. 655-685. PDF

[9] "Natural Disasters and the Size of Nations" (with Elena McLean) International Interactions 2016, vol 42, Issue 5, pp. 677-702.

[8] "Mutual Optimism as a Cause of Conflict: Secret Alliances and Conflict Onset" (with Robert Schub) International Studies Quarterly 2016, 2016 vol. 60, Issue 3, pp. 552-564.

[7] "How Uncertainty about War Outcomes Affects War Onset" (with Robert Schub) Journal of Conflict Resolution 2016 vol. 60 no. 6 pp. 1099-1128. PDF

[6] "Adverse Selection and Growth under IMF Programs" (with Randall Stone) The Review of International Organizations March 2014, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp 1-28. PDF

[5] "Knowing One's Future Preferences: A Correlated Agent Model with Bayesian Updating" (with Curt Signorino and Taehee Whang) The Journal of Theoretical Politics January 2014 vol. 26 no. 1 3-34. PDF

[4] "Measuring Uncertainty in International Relations: Heteroskedastic Strategic Models" Conflict Management and Peace Science November 2012 vol. 29 no. 5 490-520. PDF

[3] "Arms Diffusion and War" (with Andrew Coe) Journal of Conflict Resolution August 2012 vol. 56 no. 4 651-674. PDF

[2] "Democratic Inefficiency? Regime Type and Suboptimal Choices in International Politics" Journal of Conflict Resolution October 2012 vol. 56 no. 5 799-824. PDF

[1] "Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models" (with Curtis S. Signorino and Robert W. Walker) Political Analysis vol. 16 no. 1 Winner of the Warren Miller Prize for the Best Article Published in Political Analysis in 2008.


"Probabilistic Democracy'' (with Randall Stone) Under Review. PDF

"Regime Uncertainty and Interstate Conflict'' (with Omer F. Orsun) Under Review. PDF

"Deal or No Deal: Responses to States on the Verge of Proliferation" (with Eliza Gheorghe and Andrew J. Coe)

"Accidental Use of Force in International Relations"

"A Unified Model of Regime Classification and Transitions'' (with Omer Orsun)

"Environmental Change and War'' (with Andrew J. Coe)

"A Structural Model for Predicting Multiple Stages of a Nuclear Program''


"The Game of Nuclear Proliferation" (with Andrew J. Coe)

"Probably Democratic'' (with Randall Stone)