[19] "Regime Uncertainty and Interstate Conflict'' (with Omer F. Orsun) Accepted for Publication at International Studies Quarterly. PDF

[18] "Contesting the Climate: Security Implications of Geo-engineering'' (with Aseem Mahajan) Forthcoming at Climatic Change.

[17] "Natural Disasters and Cross-Border Implications" (with Elena McLean) Forthcoming at Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies.

[16] "Expecting the Unexpected: Disaster Risks and Conflict" (with Elena McLean) Forthcoming at Political Research Quarterly.

[15] "Give Peace a (Second) Chance: A Theory of Nonproliferation Deals" (with Andrew Coe) International Studies Quarterly September 2018, vol 62, no 3, pp. 606-617. PDF

[14] "Peaceful Uncertainty: When Power Shocks Do Not Create Commitment Problems" (with Robert Schub) International Studies Quarterly December 2017, vol 61, no 4, pp. 850-866. PDF

[13] "Accounting for Extra-Dyadic Sources of International Outcomes" (with Omer F. Orsun and Robert Schub) International Interactions December 2017 doi: 10.1080/03050629.2017.1414810

[12] "Theoretical and Empirical Approaches to Uncertainty and Conflict in International Relations." (with Robert Schub) Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics September 2017 doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.537. PDF

[11] "Uncertainty in International Crises" (with Elena McLean and Taehee Whang) Korean Journal of International Studies August 2017 vol. 15 no. 2 pp. 165-189

[10] "A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War'' (with Andrew Coe) International Organization 2016, vol. 70 no. 4 pp. 655-685. PDF

[9] "Natural Disasters and the Size of Nations" (with Elena McLean) International Interactions 2016, vol 42, Issue 5, pp. 677-702.

[8] "Mutual Optimism as a Cause of Conflict: Secret Alliances and Conflict Onset" (with Robert Schub) International Studies Quarterly 2016, 2016 vol. 60, Issue 3, pp. 552-564.

[7] "How Uncertainty about War Outcomes Affects War Onset" (with Robert Schub) Journal of Conflict Resolution 2016 vol. 60 no. 6 pp. 1099-1128. PDF

[6] "Adverse Selection and Growth under IMF Programs" (with Randall Stone) The Review of International Organizations March 2014, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp 1-28. PDF

[5] "Knowing One's Future Preferences: A Correlated Agent Model with Bayesian Updating" (with Curt Signorino and Taehee Whang) The Journal of Theoretical Politics January 2014 vol. 26 no. 1 3-34. PDF

[4] "Measuring Uncertainty in International Relations: Heteroskedastic Strategic Models" Conflict Management and Peace Science November 2012 vol. 29 no. 5 490-520. PDF

[3] "Arms Diffusion and War" (with Andrew Coe) Journal of Conflict Resolution August 2012 vol. 56 no. 4 651-674. PDF

[2] "Democratic Inefficiency? Regime Type and Suboptimal Choices in International Politics" Journal of Conflict Resolution October 2012 vol. 56 no. 5 799-824. PDF

[1] "Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models" (with Curtis S. Signorino and Robert W. Walker) Political Analysis vol. 16 no. 1 Winner of the Warren Miller Prize for the Best Article Published in Political Analysis in 2008.


"Probabilistic Democracy'' (with R. Stone) Under Review. PDF

"Playing to the Audience: Responses to Violations of International Order" (with E. Gheorghe and A. Coe)

"Accidental Use of Force in International Relations" (with E. Baser and O. Orsun)

"Alliance Reputation as a Hidden Variable" (O. Orsun)

"A Unified Model of Regime Classification and Transitions'' (with O. Orsun)

"Environmental Change and War'' (with A. Coe)

"A Structural Model for Predicting Multiple Stages of a Nuclear Program''


"The Game of Nuclear Proliferation" (with A. Coe)

"Probably Democratic'' (with R. Stone)